Kilgour still undecided on 
confidence vote 
by Romeo St. Martin

[PoliticsWatch Updated 1:20 p.m. May 2, 2005]

OTTAWA  — Independent MP David Kilgour, whose vote could either topple or prop up the minority Liberal government, said Monday he still has not decided which side he'll take in a non-confidence vote. 

"It is all the more important that I continue to weigh the full implications until such time a decision must be made," the former Liberal MP said in a statement. 

"Accordingly, I will listen carefully to all representations as to what vote would be in the overall best interests of Canadians."

Kilgour had been a member of the Liberal caucus since 1991 when he was ejected from the Progressive Conservative caucus. 

He left the Liberal caucus last month due in large part to concern about the allegations of government corruption emitting from the Gomery commission in Montreal. 

At the time, Kilgour compared Canada to a "northern banana republic."

Kilgour's vote in a non-confidence motion is becoming more and more critical.

After securing the votes of the NDP for non-confidence matters until after a revised budget receives Royal Assent in the senate, the government side has 150 votes in the House -- 141 Liberals and 19 NDP votes. 

The Conservatives and the Bloc Quebecois, which both have said the Liberals no longer have the moral authority to govern, have 153 votes combined. 

The balance of power is in the hands of three independent MPs. 

One of them, former Liberal MP Carolyn Parrish, quickly said that she would back the government because her constituents do not want an election. 

And the second MP, former Conservative MP Chuck Cadman, suggested in an interview Sunday that he is leaning towards keeping the Liberals in power. 

"It's not because I'm particularly thrilled with what the government is doing," Cadman told CTV's Question Period . "It comes down to people having enough information to make an informed decision on whether they want to actually go to the polls."

With Parrish and Cadman siding with or leaning towards the government, a Kilgour vote against toppling the government  would result in a 153 to 153 tie. 

A tie would be broken by the Liberal Speaker of the House, who would likely vote to maintain the status quo. 

While no date is set in stone, most opposition politicians believe a non-confidence motion will be voted on in the House on May 18 or May 19. 

The Conservatives are holding a special caucus meeting on Parliament Hill Monday evening to decide whether to proceed. 

Last week, Tory MPs were supposed to be in their ridings listening to Canadians to see if they want to have an election. But Conservative Leader Stephen Harper appeared to have made up his mind at the midway point of the week after NDP Leader Jack Layton and the prime minister cut a deal to increase budget spending by $4.6 billion. 

At the time Harper said he would advise his caucus to put the government "out of its misery" at the earliest opportunity. 

Since Harper made those comments two public opinion polls have shown the Liberals have moved slightly ahead of the Conservatives. 

The bump in Liberal fortunes comes after the budget deal and the prime minister's special address to the nation.

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