| By Randall
McCauley, Special to PoliticsWatch.com (July 24, 2001)
Edward
Greenspon of The Globe and Mail was right last week when he wrote
in a column on Stockwell Day and the Canadian Alliance that by
calling a leadership, Day was declaring war, not peace.
The
problem for Day is that over time he is bound to lose the war and
his pay check.
The
inevitable result of his ploy will be to unite the right and/or
gradually destroy the Alliance and his political career. (Yes, it
can always get worse).
First
and foremost, Day had better ensure the leadership is held before
the regularly scheduled Alliance convention in April. If the
party's National Council, which many say Day controls, calls for a
leadership convention either during or after the April get
together, Stockwell Day will find himself leading a party of three
(himself, his brother Darrell Stinson and his other brother
Darrell, oops I mean Myron Thompson) faster than a jet ski on a
calm lake in Western Canada.
If
there is one sure way to get most of the remaining MPs supporting
Day to jump ship it is by promising to resign, give the impression
of a early leadership vote and then put the whole thing off until
the regularly scheduled date, April or later.
If
this is Day's fiendish plot, the guy doesn't deserve to lead a Cub
pack, let alone an alternative to the government. For sake of
argument, lets assume he has the stuff to lead Scouts and that the
leadership will be sometime before April.
A
fall or early winter leadership will give Day a huge head start
since devotees from Grassroots for Day have been organizing on his
behalf since the dissidents first bolted. Combined with even part
of the gang that put together his winning leadership bid last
time, he stands a good chance of winning. Don't underestimate
Day's supporters. A guy named Manning did that. Remember him?
Most
people keen on the Alliance in the last election (those
vision-impaired denizens of Bay Street come to mind) were small
"c" conservatives who knew Joe Clark in the good old
days and wanted nothing to do with him the second time around.
They saw a future in Stockwell Day (and they're the people we
trust to invest our life savings?!) These people will not vote in
the Alliance leadership because they could care less, they have
moved on.
So
where will aspirants to the Alliance throne find support? Guess.
One
of the hardest things to do in politics is turn people on, get
them interested at time when they are disinterested - like during
the summer or when they see no hope for the future.
In
the case of the impending Alliance leadership, and based on passed
performance, this means a lot of average Canadian conservatives
will sit this one out. Good news for Day, bad news for everyone
else.
By
default, only the most committed will take the time to work,
organize and show up for a leadership convention. In this case
those people include fundamentalist Christians, anti-choice
zealots and people miles to the right of Ralph Klein and Mike
Harris. Guess again, who will they support?
Under
this scenario Day will likely win. But it will be a hollow
victory. He will lead something akin to a warped version of the
Texas Republican Party.
Look
for most of the current Alliance caucus members to turn to the
Conservative Party, some grumbling more than others, with the end
result being one big party of the right and a small extreme-right
Cult, bound for the history books.
If
on the other hand, something miraculous happens and there is a
collective awakening of the remaining Alliance membership, Day
could lose to Stephen Harper.
Stockwell
Day will then join Joe Clark in the pantheon of Great Political
Geniuses (GPG) who resign their leadership, run for the leadership
and lose the leadership.
Either
way he loses, sooner or later. Stick a fork in him. He's done. You
heard it here first.
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